The Miami Heat are infamous at this point for signing contributors off of the street — Caleb Martin, Gabe Vincent, Duncan Robinson. They’ve too quietly reloaded their chest of higher-profile young talent, with the 2022 27th overall pick Nikola Jovic as possibly the most consequential.
Jovic didn’t play much as a rookie and to begin his sophomore season. Miami thrust him into the rotation by the end of year two, featuring him heavily in their playoff lineups. Against the Celtics, Jovic played 25 minutes per game, significantly more than his season average of 19. On the season, Jovic averaged a solid 7.7 points, 4.2 boards and 2.0 assists per game on a slightly above-league average of 58.3% true shooting.
Nikola Jovic’s shooting could elevate him into a genuine threat
At 6’10, Jovic shot the ball like a genuine exterior threat last season. Jovic nailed 39.9% of his triples on 6.8 attempts per 75 possessions with a 0.58 three-point attempt rate. That’s encouraging volume for any shooting wing, let alone a gigantic 20-year-old.
His volume forces defenses to pay attention to Jovic and close out hard. A confident shooter, Jovic pulls when defenses slide under ball screens. He’ll rip threes off of the catch without hesitating regardless of distance, contests or position on the floor. On 107 guarded catch-and-shoot triples, he drained a solid 34.6% of those attempts.
Jovic hasn’t attempted many off-dribble jumpers, which could be a latent ceiling raiser for him. At Jovic’s height, defenses already struggle to contest and bother his shots. Even without elite advantage creation, a lethal pull-up jumper from three and mid-range would help Jovic command more usage.
Even if Jovic only provided shooting value at his size, he’d fall as a useful offensive piece. Spacing is king in the modern NBA, especially on a Miami team with a center in Bam Adebayo who doesn’t shoot threes. Outside of his shooting, though, Jovic has enough driving juice to punish defenses who sell out to his jumpers and the playmaking skill to operate secondary pick and rolls.
Jovic connects Miami’s offense with snappy ball movement, punishing defensive mistakes with the pass. His assist rate nearly doubled to 14.7% in year two despite a slighy usage dip Jovic’s processing speed at his size makes him a valuable secondary passer, as Jovic swings extra passes to shooters and finds cutters in tight windows. Miami often initiates offense with Jovic at the top of the key, trusting him to read out plays like a game-managing quarterback.
He’s flashed some secondary pick-and-roll competence, passing over the top of defenses with his size and height. Miami trusts Jovic to operate secondary pick-and-roll action given his solid decision-making, but his on-ball creation ceiling will lean on how he can generate separation and open looks.
What ails Nikola Jovic’s game and how can he improve it?
Against athletic, disciplined defenders, Jovic struggles to create space. He’s a bit slow to win consistently on the perimeter, unable to win consistently with his first step, late explosion or strength. Jovic can weaponize his size and handling skill to win downhill occasionally, though that isn’t a consistent aspect of his game.
Jovic relies on his touch and craft to score on the interior but hasn’t been able to maintain strong efficiency yet. Jovic shot 58.4% within five feet last year, landing well below average among all players, let alone ones of his height. He’s uncomfortably elevating in traffic; despite his height, Jovic only dunked the ball once in the half-court last season.
Expanding his intermediate scoring game might be Jovic’s cleanest path to more on-ball success. He shot a solid 41.7% outside of five feet, dropping in floaters and mid-range jumpers with his size and touch. As Jovic continues to progress as a pick-and-roll operator and a driver, that mid-range jumper could develop into an important counter when defenses run him off of the line.
Miami instilled trust in Jovic through his play this season on the defensive end, especially in the postseason. Against Boston, Jovic flashed his cerebral defensive kit, executing long rotations, reading actions and creating turnovers. Heat defenses necessitate heady defenders and Jovic fits that bill at his size.
Teams can exploit Jovic’s perimeter defense even in Miami’s buttoned-up system. His slow twitch explosion limits Jovic’s ability to change directions in short spaces and to guard quicker players at the point of attack. Miami even tried him at center in some lineups, likely as a result of his perimeter limitations alongside his smarts as a back-line defender.
Jovic struggles especially to close out long to shooters. He’s not quick or fluid enough to stop and change directions, relying solely on his size as a recovery tool. His size allows for some error, as he’s able to overwhelm smaller players with length even if they beat him.
Miami Heat culture will be the catalyst for Nikola Jovic
Miami’s defensive infrastructure lifts players to the top of their outcome range and this will likely be the case with Jovic. His physical tools and speed might limit Jovic’s defensive ceiling but he should contribute positive minutes with his smarts and versatility.
At this point, there’s a long, documented history of Miami Heat players developing into the best versions of themselves. Whatever it is about the mercurial “Heat Culture,” Miami tends to help players improve. Jovic’s physical tools may limit his ultimate ceiling, though Miami’s track record and elite coaching will be beneficial.
Erik Spoelstra will place Jovic in positions for him to succeed. He’s done it already, evidenced by Jovic’s improvement and play in the postseason. It’s possible Jovic develops into a jumbo initiator. His touch could lead to pull-up shooting development, unlocking his driving and playmaking game even further.
Deep into the playoffs, teams may be able to target Jovic on the defensive end if his mobility never improves. But as long as Jovic continues to shoot the ball as well as he does, it’s easy to project Jovic as a valuable fifth starter at the very least. That would be a phenomenal outcome for any 27th-overall pick, but this is what we’ve come to expect from the Miami Heat.
