The subject matter didn’t cause a lot of debate.
Though they technically project the 2024-25 NBA season to feature strong parity in both conferences, a handful of NBA executives and assistant coaches all told Sportskeeda that they still believe the Boston Celtics will defend their NBA champion.
They expressed less certainty, however, on how the rest of the Eastern and Western Conference landscape as well as the regular-season MVP race would play. Two NBA executives and two NBA assistant coaches shared their anonymous thoughts below.
Editor’s note: The following one-on-one conversations took place separately and have been condensed and edited.
Who’s your pick to win the NBA Finals?
NBA executive #1: “I still think it’s very wide open. But you always have to give a healthy defending champ the nod. So to the extent that Boston remains healthy, they deserve to be the favorites. They were down their fourth-best player last season with [Kristaps] Porzingis. But I think they’ll be healthy. Also, nobody else has upgraded their team enough to really compete with them. I think Boston is the most talented team in the league. And I think they got even better assuming they can get their entire team healthy.”
NBA executive #2: “You have to dethrone the champion [Boston], and they didn’t really get much older. You have to look at that team and say that they’re the favorite going in. Their talent level is amazing. [Jayson] Tatum and [Jaylen] Brown are young and elite. The [Derrick] White kid has been a huge addition. He’s probably a starter on any other NBA team. For the first part of his career, I don’t think anyone expected him to play that well. [Jrue] Holiday is huge. The talent level is pretty darn good. Even though Porzingis didn’t play much, they still won a championship and he should be healthy this season. He’s always struggled staying healthy. So even if you start the season, it doesn’t mean he’ll be healthy the whole year with his history. But he could stay healthy. There’s a lot of parity across the league. But given the amount of talent that [the Celtics] have stockpiled, they’ll be the champions.”
NBA assistant coach #1: “I would go with Boston. But I don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion. I think there is more parity than it’s ever been. The dominant players are aging out. The frequency of major injuries in today’s NBA makes it hard to predict anymore. If Tatum goes down, they’re not guaranteed to win. If Jaylen Brown goes down, they’re not guaranteed to win. But you give the Celtics the edge because teams often have the edge to repeat because they had just gone through that challenge. So they have immediate banked-in experience with winning. Articulating that experience or confidence is really difficult. It’s an unseen advantage. But from a roster fit, I think it’s awesome. Jrue Holiday has proven that if you have him on your team, you have a chance to win a championship. I’d give him credit for Milwaukee’s championship [in 2021]. I’d give him credit for Boston’s as well. I think he’s s a huge underestimated piece to winning a championship in today’s NBA.”
NBA assistant coach #2: “You have to take Boston as the favorite. Winning was a huge confidence booster for them, and it gave them a roadmap on how to do it. Repeating is always very hard because you play long into June. Denver talked about it after their title. They had very little time off. It was really hard to come back with that kind of energy. I’m contradicting myself with saying they’re the favorite. But the confidence that the Celtics gained and the roadmap that they provided through their success propels them into a play of talent and mentality. You have to know how to win. I think they figured that out. That’s a big step. A team like that is already comfortable together with another year is huge. That second year really helps. You’re already galvanized with winning, knowing what it takes and having a strong talent pool. They don’t have many holes in their roster. They are the best basketball team.”
How do you assess the rest of the Eastern Conference landscape?
NBA executive #1: “The Knicks are doing a tremendous job of knocking on that door and at least being part of the conversation. I do not think Milwaukee is deep enough. I think they rely way too much on a perpetually unhealthy Khris Middleton. I think they’re going to have to make a trade using Khris Middleton’s big salary and load up on some more reliable and younger two-way players. With Philadelphia, if Joel Embiid and Paul George can stay healthy, they are capable of being a top-four team in the East.”
NBA executive #2: “I don’t know about Milwaukee. Middleton has to stay healthy. I think with Paul George, I would say Philly is at No. 2. New York, I don’t know. They’re pretty good. But top three I would say are Celtics, Philly and New York.”
NBA assistant coach #1: “Philly really loaded up with vets. They are definitely going for it. They’re all in going for it. Milwaukee is going to be better, too. They got to play together for a year. They have more stability at this point. But I still think Boston and Philly are better than them. Philly has more talent and experience than Milwaukee. You have Embiid, Maxey and Paul George and all of the other guys are veteran teams. But can they stay healthy? I don’t know. I don’t have an explanation why injuries have become such a part of the game. Every theory that people present, you can blow it apart with science and AAU theory. There are still same amount of counter facts to disprove that opinion. But I’m not really sure.”
NBA assistant coach #2: “It’ll be interesting to see what Kenny [Atkinson] does in Cleveland. Cleveland will probably be in the mix a little bit. But we’ll see what happens. Milwaukee has always been a head scratcher for me. You can’t put Milwaukee as a favorite. I don’t think they’re consistent enough. If they show they are consistent and can win big games, then yes. But part of winning a title is knowing how to win. More continuity will help. Doc [Rivers] will be able to put his stuff that he wants in and will coach how he wants to coach and use the personnel the right way. But we’ll see. They’re talented with Dame [Damian Lillard] and Middleton. But he’s got the health question. That adds to the uncertainty with the team. Losing Jrue was a big blow to them. Them picking up Dame is really good. But because of their inconsistency, injuries and uncertainty on what Doc is able to do with them, that’s why they’re a headscratcher. I would not pick them as my favorite.”
“I really, really like Paul George and that acquisition in Philly. They have to be in that conversation. This is an unknown talented team, and you can’t just pin them as the favorites. We’ve had examples of that with Brooklyn and Philly in other years. Chemistry matters. The way the team clicks, the coach, that all matters along with talent. I don’t think with a new group, you can just automatically say that’s a favorite. You don’t know how it’s going to work. You can anticipate it being really good. But they are going to be a really good team in the East.”
Which Western Conference team will face the Celtics in the Finals?
NBA executive #1: “The team to beat in the West is Phoenix, believe it or not. I think their top-end talent is just ready to make a move. KD [Kevin Durant] and Book [Devin Booker] are really, really good. They had an outlier year last year with trying to get everything working together. I think [Mike] Budenholzer and Tyus Jones are great additions. I think they will figure out a way to use some draft compensation and [Jusuf] Nurkić contract to get even better [in a trade]. I think the team that emerges from the West in Phoenix. I believe in Kevin. I believe in Booker. I believe in Budenholzer. Denver, Dallas, Oklahoma City are options. But I think the one-two punch in Phoenix is better than the one-two punch anywhere else.
I don’t think the Oklahoma City Thunder are willing yet in its competitive cycle to push more chips to go for a championship. If they were willing to do that, they would be my pick to come out of the West. But I don’t think they’re willing to do that. They probably think Chet [Holmgren] and Jalen [Williams] are too young. I don’t think they want that pressure to put draft picks and a big contract to go trade for another No. 3 or No. 4 type of player.”
“Minnesota took a competitive step backward with the [Karl-Anthony Towns] trade. They took a considerable step backward. Julius [Randle] is a really good offensive player, but he doesn’t necessarily play a good team game and doesn’t stretch the floor like KAT did. I think they will find it difficult to play ANT [Anthony Edwards] and Julius on the floor together. ANT needs to play in space. But there won’t be space with Julius and Rudy [Gobert] on the floor together. At least with KAT, there was more space. In playoff basketball, the whole objective is to draw two defenders to the basketball. KAT did that. I don’t know that Julius does. ANT certainly does.”
“I think Dallas caught lightning in a bottle last year with PJ Washington’s play. I think they still lack a big who can score the basketball routinely. PJ is not really a great scorer. Once every couple of years, Kyrie becomes a megastar and then comes back into his shell. I think last year was the super-star year, and am concerned that he will regress. I don’t discount Dallas. They’re a big-time team. But I would give Phoenix the edge because their top-two players are more reliable and their coach is better. With Denver, Joker [Nikola Jokic] is the best player in the league. But Denver’s second-best player is going backward. Jamal [Murray] hasn’t been the same. There is something about Jamal’s health and physical capacity right now that concerns me. Michael Porter is also terribly overrated. He’s a one-way player and just a scorer. I also don’t think Denver has the assets to get an upgrade. They’ll be stuck with the team they have.”
NBA executive #2: “Dallas got into the Finals, but I can’t say I would pick them as favorites to get into the Finals again. Minnesota, I’m not a real believer in them. I know they’re one of the top four teams. I think coming out of the West, I’d probably have to say Denver or OKC. Actually, I’d go with OKC. They made a big change with getting [Alex] Caruso. They lost [Josh] Giddey, but they had a heck of a year. I think they’ll be a little bit better. So in the West, I would have OKC, Denver, Minnesota and Dallas. The next group would be Phoenix, Golden State, Lakers and maybe the Clippers. There is a lot of parity in the West.”
NBA assistant coach #1: “I still feel like OKC, Minnesota and Dallas are probably still on the rise. They’re still on the climb. Could they get over the hump? It’s possible. Obviously when you have Luka, Shai and Anthony Edwards and if they have unbelievable years and play out of their mind as they’re on pace to do, you have a chance.”
NBA assistant coach #2: “I’m interested to see what the additions in Oklahoma City do to that team. They’re very good and getting better. They’re the most versatile defensively and are very talented and potent offensively. I don’t know if they’re a favorite, but they’ll be really good. Denver is still really, really good. They’re going to miss KCP, but Jokic, Murray and [Aaron] Gordon are really, really good. [Michael] Malone is a good coach and proven. I wouldn’t count Denver out in the West, but I would choose OKC in the West.”
“Minnesota is probably in the conversation. But I think they’re missing that grit and ‘know-how-to-win’ mentality. It doesn’t mean they’re not good. What Minnesota did against Phoenix and Denver in the playoffs was incredible. The problem was they weren’t able to sustain that energy and defense. With Dallas, they’re going to score a lot. But I think the question mark with them is how are they able to guard? Can they play Kyrie, Luka and Klay [Thompson] together? It’s not impossible because they will be potent offensively. They’ll have their bigs going to the rim. They’ll have Klay, who is an elite, elite shooter. He’s not going to lose that. But can they guard? If you start Klay, Luka and Kyrie, who would they start at their four? Washington. One of those guys, [Dereck] Lively or Gafford, are going to play the 5. I don’t think they play them both together. I guess where I’m going with this is, ‘Who guards Steph Curry on that team? Who guards Anthony Edwards?’ It doesn’t mean they’re not a good team. But who is guarding the other team’s two stars?”
Who’s your pick to win NBA regular-season MVP?
NBA executive #1: “I think Luka is primed to break out. He made it to the Finals last year. You could see that he wanted it badly. He just wasn’t talented enough to get it. I’m going to guess he comes back this year. His body is better. His mind is better. He’s more experienced. He’s tasted more success in the postseason. I imagine we’ll see the best Luka we will ever see.”
NBA executive #2: – “LeBron [James], Shai, Joker, Edwards, Tatum, [Jalen] Brunson all have a shot. [Joel] Embiid is always hurt. With Giannis, I don’t see it this year. But I’ll say Shai. Shai could be the MVP this year.”
NBA assistant coach #1: “I’d probably go with Jokic. What’s going to happen is Denver is still going to be good and still going to be competing. The storyline will be, ‘Look at what this guy is doing, and with what he has around him. They’re not that good, but he still gets them there and improves the guys around them.’ Shai probably should have won it last year, based on his play and their record. But I think it’s hard to dethrone someone like Jokic with his style of play. If I wasn’t going with Jokic, I’d go with Embiid. If he stays healthy and puts up the kind of numbers that he does, I think it’ll be difficult for Shai to dethrone those guys. OKC did all of that winning, but Shai is still considered a young player.”
NBA assistant coach #2: “Shai-Gilgeous Alexander. I don’t think Jokic will win it again. He has won it for three in the past four years. I just don’t think the league [voters] will do that. Plus, Shai is an elite scorer and OKC is going to be really good. He’s the head of the snake. He also guards pretty well. Everything runs through him. He’s a closer. He knows how to win. So I feel like his points will be up. Caruso is also really going to help him. Shai is one of the elite players in our game, and he’s up and coming. For all of those reasons, I’d pick him.”
Who’s your pick to win Rookie of the Year?
NBA executive #1: “Reed Sheppard probably gets enough minutes and enough shots to emerge as the Rookie of the Year. My other pick is Stephon Castle, but I think he has some health issues. Alex Sarr is going to going to get a lot of minutes to showcase his defense and versatility. But I don’t think defense wins Rookie of the Year awards. What Reed offers is what typically will win you Rookie of the Year. He’s a guy that can put the ball in the basket. A Rookie of the Year candidate is rarely a defensive stalwart.”
NBA executive #2: “Reed Sheppard. He might not have the best career, but I think he’ll have the best chance at Rookie of the Year. I just think he’s a heck of an athlete and he’s got good savvy. He can shoot the ball. He looks like he knows how to play. He’s so young, and he’s only going to get better. [Houston’s] not a great team. So he’ll play a lot.”
NBA assistant coach #1: “It’s going to be tough for Sarr. Right now, he’s just a defender. Reed Sheppard has a chance. He’s the most complete and polished of both guys. He can shoot. He knows how to play. He seems to have the advantage there.”
NBA assistant coach #2: “I’ll have to think about that. I don’t want to take a stab at that one. There’s no real favorite.”
Mark Medina is an NBA insider for Sportskeeda. Follow him on X, Instagram, Facebook and Threads.
